The college football world was hoping for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, offering a lot of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 against the spread, including 3 fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not appear to believe so. At least in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a particularly popular choice with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
"All the money is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns encompasses the futures market as well. Remember that massive $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the most significant underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most like from sharp bettors. The Athletic talked to a number of bookies who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.
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John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "really reputable gamer."
Despite the fact that has can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do just that, as public bettors are stacking on Texas.
"We would love to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
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While the Texas video game will be big for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We talked with several bookies to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
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This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has actually crept up slightly to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at a lot of sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I would not be shocked if this line approaches a bit more before kickoff, however I currently welcome any Boise State cash."
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Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd opportunity it desired. Are the Buckeyes all set for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home canine.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked with before the CFP first round had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before reputable cash pushed it to the existing line of -2.5. A somewhat greater majority of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the money has can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some reputable money at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's decent two-way action at that number right now. The total has actually increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the biggest move of any of the totals. Money has actually all been on the over so far.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp bettors, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and immediately our Ohio wagerers believed we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had seen significant buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
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The preferred flipped in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line flip? Put simply, the sports betting action.
Despite the fact that Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars bet), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Being Available In On Texas'
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